Expect the rest of winter to be warmer and wetter than normal.
Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) says the signals are pointing this way in January, February and March.
“Right now, the signal is there’s a better chance it’s going to be above normal in terms of temperatures for the next three months,” said Gerald Cheng, a meteorologist with ECCC.
“This is not to say, though, that it’s for sure,” he added. “There’s a great deal of uncertainty when we look at these signals.”
January is usually the coldest month, with the most precipitation, so residents have that to look forward to when 2022 begins Saturday.
ECCC calculates monthly temperature by averaging the daytime high and nighttime low for every day of the month.
In January it’s minus-7.7 degrees Celsius, followed by minus-6.6 C in February and minus-2.1 C in March, on the cusp of spring.
“It (temperatures) should be above normal for these three months, however… it doesn’t mean there are no variations,” Cheng said. “When we talk about seasonal forecasts, we’re talking about climate statistics, what they’re going to be.
“But we live the day-to-day, and it’s the day-to-day extremes, the variations that we experience,” he added. “There could be cold stretches, too.”
If predicting monthly temperatures is an inexact science, forecasting precipitation is even more so.
ECCC says January’s precipitation is normally 83 millimetres, while it’s 62 mm in February and 58 mm in March.
“The trend is that it is going to be above normal for Barrie and surrounding areas,” Cheng said. “But when we talk about the seasonal forecast, it doesn’t tell you what types of precipitation. Is it going to come in the form of rain, snow or freezing rain?
“There is no way to pinpoint that.”
How this precipitation falls will have different impacts on drivers, walkers and runners, shovellers and skiers.
And in case you were wondering, ECCC doesn’t track average wind speeds on a monthly basis.
Cheng says it’s best to take long-range weather forecasts with a grain of salt.
“The seasonal forecast doesn’t mean we can ignore the day-to-day changes in weather,” he said.
So when you look outside during the next three months, expect whatever weather seen to change.
