The health unit is seeing red in two of four indicators it’s using to determine the status of the region when it comes to COVID-19 response.
The Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit has launched a new monitoring dashboard to track four indicators, including the spread and containment of the virus, laboratory testing, health system capacity, and public health system capacity.
Based on current data, both laboratory testing and public health capacity are in the red zone – the indicator goes from green (okay) to yellow (needs attention) to red (trending away from the goal).
In Simcoe-Muskoka region, only about 8.8 per cent of tests results are turned around in a day, and about 27.4 per cent are turned around in two days. The goal for the region is to have 80 per cent of test results back within two days.
Public health system capacity is in the danger zone due to contact tracing. Last week, the medical officer of health for Simcoe Muskoka, Dr. Charles Gardner, announced the health unit could no longer keep up with contact tracing, and was asking some people who test positive for COVID-19 to reach out to their own contacts.
Now, with Public Health Ontario taking over about 20 per cent of the region’s contact tracing efforts, the health unit is still only reaching 66.5 per cent of newly-reported high-risk COVID-19 contacts within one day. The goal is to reach more than 90 per cent of contacts within a day.
The health unit is currently reaching out to 87.3 per cent of all new cases within a day of receiving test results. The goal there is also to reach 90 per cent within a day.
The other two indicators are in the yellow zone. Hospital acute bed occupancy rates average about 91 per cent (goal is less than 90), but intensive care unit bed occupancy rate is 70.3 per cent (goal is less than 90) and ventilator bed occupancy is at 34.6 per cent (goal is less than 60).
When it comes to virus spread and containment, most of the statistics are trending upwards, including the reproductive number, the number of outbreaks, and the number of cases reported per day.
“I do not doubt they will go up for a time before they come down,” said Gardner of the area case statistics. “If we continue to see an elevation in our cases … reproduction number and per cent positivity, that would tip us into the red.”
All three of those indicators have been increasing since August.
The doctor said at the rate things are increasing currently in Simcoe-Muskoka, the region could be elevated to “red” overall status within a week.
The health unit has reported 127 new COVID-19 cases in the region in the last seven days, which is more than double what it reported in the previous week.
There are 25 school-related cases in the region, four institutional outbreaks (three long-term care homes and a group home), and two workplace outbreaks.
“I’m very concerned,” said Gardner. “I worry about what we don’t see … anything we do now to turn this around will be delayed in its impact.”
Adhering to public health guidelines is vital, he said.
“Our full resources are put into the COVID response,” said Gardner. “It also needs the attention of the public. We all have to be aware this is happening. We all have to put into practice the control measures in our lives.”
He said the health unit is also looking to the province proceeding with more control measures.
Referring to the latest restrictions placed on Ontario hot spots in Ottawa, Toronto, and Peel Region, Gardner suggested similar measures would be needed if the regional situation escalates.
“It’s entirely possible that in the near future the province will extend these same restrictions,” said Gardner. “Though that is very much the call of the provincial government.”
You can see the monitoring dashboard with the latest statistics and status on the health unit website here.
