A possible third wave of the coronavirus has the region's medical officer of health concerned any further restrictions will be met with increased levels of non-compliance and believes a lockdown would be difficult to sustain.
But he's not ready to pull an emergency brake right now.
With increasing COVID case counts across the province, Simcoe-Muskoka has seen a week-over-week decrease.
During March 7-13 the health unit reported 300 new cases of COVID-19, and during the week of March 14-20 there were 265 new cases.
With about a two-week delay in when case transmission likely occurs and when cases are confirmed through symptoms and testing, the latest drop could be the result of the one week the region spent in the grey/lockdown zone of the provincial COVID-19 response framework.
“We did have some reduction that may possibly have been attributed to that,” said Dr. Charles Gardner, medical officer of health for the Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit. “We shall see where cases go.”
The dip in cases over the last week is not enough, however, for Gardner to recommend loosening any restrictions.
The province announced new rules last weekend for restaurants in red zone regions (including Simcoe Muskoka) allowing restaurants to have indoor patrons at 50 per cent of the building capacity up to 50 people (whichever is fewer).
It’s a move Gardner does not support.
“They’ve done it of their own choosing and it would be contrary to what I would advise,” he said. “At this time, with increasing case counts across the province and the very real potential of a third wave happening, they need to maintain control measures, rather than relax.”
He and his team at the health unit are watching the total number of cases in the region, on the lookout for spikes and increases. But the doctor said his mind is also turned to the vehement opposition expressed during the one-week lockdown in Simcoe Muskoka from March 1-7.
“I think that people are exhausted with the control measures and it’s clearly very hard on everybody … so I am concerned that the third wave will prove to be very challenging to us,” said Gardner.
While neither Gardner, nor Public Health Ontario has declared a third wave, some health professionals are calling the current spread of COVID-19, particularly more transmissible variant strains a third wave.
This time, however, there is an added level of protection in place with the vaccines. In Simcoe Muskoka, all eligible residents of long-term care and retirement homes have received vaccinations, and Gardner said the health unit has seen a near 100 per cent vaccine appointment registration rate from those over 79 years old in the region. Not everyone in that age group has received a dose of vaccine yet.
According to Gardner, it’s still not clear whether a vaccinated person is providing protection to anyone outside of themselves. The available COVID-19 vaccinations protect against symptomatic infections of COVID-19 and death from the disease.
“We do know that these vaccines reduce what we call the viral load and viral shedding … the amount of virus in your body and that correlates with transmission,” said Gardner. “If you have a lower viral load, you’re less infectious overall so in theory … it’s very likely you’re reducing the risk … but we’ve yet to get a definitive answer with research to that question.”
If this is a third wave, or if one is coming, Gardner said the vaccinations already complete will provide a “high degree” of protection for vulnerable populations.
“It could still have a heavy impact on hospitalizations and intensive care unit use because the rest of the population has yet to be protected,” said Gardner. “So I’m concerned about that and then I am concerned that having to go into more stringent controls or a lockdown would be opposed and very difficult to sustain.”
In addition to public demonstrations and a slew of letters sent to Gardner during the March 1-7 lockdown, there have been further protests in Simcoe County against any future lockdowns.
In Barrie, one group has indicated it will be protesting every Saturday at a public park.
